share

informed decisions blog

Should You Retire at a Market All-Time High? Sequence Risk & the Irish ARF

August 31, 2026

Paddy Delaney

How much cash should an Irish retiree hold alongside an ARF?

There is no single right answer, but many retiring clients hold roughly two to eight years of planned withdrawals in low-volatility assets. That buffer exists so a mandatory 4% withdrawal never has to come out of a fund that has just fallen.

Retirement withdrawal strategies in Ireland come with a fear that freezes people: retiring while markets sit at an all-time high. Should you? The record level feels dangerous, but it is not the risk that actually decides your outcome.

In this episode, Paddy asks whether retiring at an all-time high is really the risk Irish savers fear, or whether the thing that decides your outcome is something else entirely.

What you'll learn:

• Why all-time highs are common, not a warning: global equities sit at or near record highs on roughly a third of trading days

• What Japan's lost decades really warn against: concentration in one market, not equities themselves

• A sequence-of-returns case study: how two retirees with the same €1.2m and the same average return finished €1.25m apart

• The Irish nuance: why Revenue's imputed distribution makes the buffer inside your ARF matter more than any market call

If you're within a couple of years of drawing down, and the timing has you worried, this episode is for you.

📖 Blog: www.informeddecisions.ie/post/should-i-retire-at-all-time-highs-ireland

📊 Want to check where you are? Try our free 10-minute Retirement Readiness Scorecard: www.informeddecisions.ie/pension-calculator

📅 Find out how we work: https://www.informeddecisions.ie/our-process

What does Japan’s stock market crash teach Irish investors?

The Nikkei 225 fell about 82% from its December 1989 peak and took until February 2024 to recover. The lesson is about concentration in one market, not about equities. A globally diversified investor kept compounding through those decades.

Disclaimer

The content of this site including blogs and podcasts is for information purposes only. Everybody’s financial situation is different and the content we share on our site and through podcasts may not be applicable to you. 

The articles, blogs and podcasts are not investment advice. They do not take account of your individual circumstances, including your knowledge and experience and attitude to risk. Informed Decisions can’t be held responsible for the consequences if you pursue a course of action based on the information we share

You may also like...

Should You Retire at a Market All-Time High? Sequence Risk & the Irish ARF
August 31, 2026

Should You Retire at a Market All-Time High? Sequence Risk & the Irish ARF

find out more
Planning to 95: Life Expectancy, the Irish ARF and the Real Retirement Lever
August 24, 2026

Planning to 95: Life Expectancy, the Irish ARF and the Real Retirement Lever

find out more
72% One Country: Is Your Irish Pension Actually Diversified?
August 17, 2026

72% One Country: Is Your Irish Pension Actually Diversified?

find out more

Not sure if your pension will be enough?

Informed Decisions are one of Ireland's only remaining independent financial advice firms. Our free retirement calculator models your income, tax, and lifestyle goals — in 10 minutes.

Irish Tax Modelling • All Income Sources • Personalised Results

Find out where you stand today...

Try the Calculator