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Sequence of Returns Risk: Why the First Decade of Retirement Decides Everything

July 6, 2026

Paddy Delaney

Two people can retire with the same ARF, the same average return, and the same withdrawal rate, and still end up in completely different places. One leaves over €1m to his family. The other runs out of money before he turns 88. The only difference is the order in which the returns arrived.

In this episode, Paddy breaks down sequence of returns risk in Ireland: the risk that gets far less attention than fund performance or pot size, but can matter more than either.

What you'll learn:

• Why sequence of returns doesn't matter at all while you're still accumulating

• Why the first ten years of drawdown can account for roughly 77% of your final outcome

• How Revenue's 4%/5%/6% imputed distribution rules interact with this risk in an Irish ARF

• Four practical ways to protect your ARF — cash buffers, dynamic withdrawal, portfolio   construction, and timing flexibility

If you're within a decade of retirement, or already drawing an income from your ARF, this is worth twenty-five minutes of your time.

🎙️ Full podcast episode and 📖 Blog: www.informeddecisions.ie/post/sequence-of-returns-risk-ireland

📊 Want to check where you are? Try our free 5-minute Retirement Readiness Scorecard: https://www.informeddecisions.ie/pension-calculator

📅 Find out how we work: https://www.informeddecisions.ie/our-process

Disclaimer

The content of this site including blogs and podcasts is for information purposes only. Everybody’s financial situation is different and the content we share on our site and through podcasts may not be applicable to you. 

The articles, blogs and podcasts are not investment advice. They do not take account of your individual circumstances, including your knowledge and experience and attitude to risk. Informed Decisions can’t be held responsible for the consequences if you pursue a course of action based on the information we share

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